Friday, October 8, 2010

can you guess my finish time?

As you all know, marathon #3 is just eight days away. And as you also know, this will be the first time that I run a marathon injury-free AND full of potential.

So, since I don't have a good sense of how long it will take me to finish, I (with the help of Shelly) thought it would be fun to have contest to see who can best predict my marathon finish time. Fun, right?

Here's the scoop. I am going to give you a bunch of statistics about my training, past performances, etc. Then you use that information to make your best guess on my finish time, down to the second. And the person who is closest (either over or under) will walk away with this ...


(Note: if somehow there is a tie, those names will go into a hat and a winner will be randomly selected.)


THE STATS:
Current Marathon PR: 5:06:38 (injured)

Current Half Marathon PR: 1:58:02

Current 5K PR: 24:09

Average mileage for the past 16 weeks: 42.9 miles per week

Long runs - 20+ miles: 3

(20 @ 10:41 pace, 22 @ 10:11 pace, 24.8 @ 10:44 pace)


So, are you in? Good. Once you have determined my finish time, become a follower (if you already aren't) and leave me a comment with your answer.

Entries will be selected until Friday, October 15th (the day before the race) and the winner will be announced some time in the day or two after the race. Probably.
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108 comments:

  1. MichelOctober 8, 2010 at 7:20 AM

    hmmm I'm taking a total guess...already a follower...
    I say 4:48:01
    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  2. JOctober 8, 2010 at 7:25 AM

    already a follower! I am going to say 4:41:25!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Stephanie AnneOctober 8, 2010 at 7:27 AM

    My guess is 4:39:17

    good luck!!

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  4. AnneOctober 8, 2010 at 7:39 AM

    I say 4:19:32

    Rock it!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Silly Girl RunningOctober 8, 2010 at 7:45 AM

    I'm already a follower!

    And I say: 4:08:56! Easy Peasy!

    ReplyDelete
  6. MegaliOctober 8, 2010 at 7:50 AM

    Kick butt! 4:34:10

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  7. *~*~* TracyOctober 8, 2010 at 7:57 AM

    Follower!

    4:37:12

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  8. UnknownOctober 8, 2010 at 8:06 AM

    Follower--of course!

    4:27:18

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  9. MCM MamaOctober 8, 2010 at 8:11 AM

    I'm a follower.

    I'm saying 4:19:59.

    Just remember to start slow and you will absolutely knock this marathon on its butt!

    ReplyDelete
  10. ChristaOctober 8, 2010 at 8:16 AM

    I am a follower already-
    I am going to go with 4:14:30

    Cant wait to here all about it. You will do great!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. A Prelude To...October 8, 2010 at 8:21 AM

    4:05:03!
    Kill it!

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousOctober 8, 2010 at 8:30 AM

    4:28:17

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  13. jamie@sweatyhugsOctober 8, 2010 at 8:31 AM

    Already a follower!

    My wild guess?

    4:15:58

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  14. ValerieOctober 8, 2010 at 8:36 AM

    I'm a follower already :)

    My guess: 4:22:22

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  15. MarciaGOctober 8, 2010 at 8:37 AM

    4:20:33!!!!

    I follow you.

    Have a great marathon!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. erindegroffOctober 8, 2010 at 8:39 AM

    I'm a follower! 4:30:15. Have a great race! I just finished my first marathon in Corning, NY; it was a blast! I'm already looking for another to do!

    ReplyDelete
  17. MichelleOctober 8, 2010 at 8:53 AM

    Already a follower! I'm gonna say 4:20:25.

    ReplyDelete
  18. ShannonOctober 8, 2010 at 9:00 AM

    4:25:17 and I'm already a follower :)

    ReplyDelete
  19. abbiOctober 8, 2010 at 9:01 AM

    Follower - 4:20:56

    ReplyDelete
  20. KarenOctober 8, 2010 at 9:01 AM

    I'm a follower, and I'm going with 4:13:27.

    ReplyDelete
  21. JCOctober 8, 2010 at 9:06 AM

    I say 4:19:25

    ReplyDelete
  22. MarleneOctober 8, 2010 at 9:14 AM

    Awesome idea!

    My guess is: 4:20:00

    ReplyDelete
  23. KarenOctober 8, 2010 at 9:15 AM

    following :) I am going to say 4:12:38

    ReplyDelete
  24. CarlyOctober 8, 2010 at 9:18 AM

    My guess is 4:22.00. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  25. MonaOctober 8, 2010 at 9:23 AM

    I'm a follower.
    I am going to say 4:15:30!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Running Diva MomOctober 8, 2010 at 9:35 AM

    I'm going to say 4:17:59 -- You are going to rock this ... and just may surprise yourself! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  27. suzy, http://countdownto13.blogspot.com/October 8, 2010 at 9:39 AM

    hmmm....my guess
    4:14:22
    Good luck girl!

    ReplyDelete
  28. JenOctober 8, 2010 at 9:39 AM

    I follow... my guess

    4:16:11

    You go girl!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Diana Tries-A-Tri!October 8, 2010 at 9:43 AM

    4:10:25
    Good luck!
    Oh and I'm a follower!

    ReplyDelete
  30. UnknownOctober 8, 2010 at 9:54 AM

    If you eat cake the night before:
    4:20:23

    If you don't eat cake:
    4:05:23

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  31. AnonymousOctober 8, 2010 at 10:11 AM

    What a fun idea TMB!!!

    I'm gonna go with you destroying this thing...

    4:09:35

    ReplyDelete
  32. EmilyOctober 8, 2010 at 10:11 AM

    4:06.54

    Pumped for you!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Pam @ herbieontherun.comOctober 8, 2010 at 10:14 AM

    I'm a follower.

    4:18:02!

    ReplyDelete
  34. RaeOctober 8, 2010 at 10:16 AM

    I'm a follower!

    4:04:44

    YOU GO GIRL!

    ReplyDelete
  35. Crafty KellyOctober 8, 2010 at 10:22 AM

    Oooohhh - I feel like I am on the Price is Right! I say 4:15:29! LOL! You will rock it!

    ReplyDelete
  36. ljsmanzOctober 8, 2010 at 10:33 AM

    4:16:49

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  37. TrishOctober 8, 2010 at 10:38 AM

    I guess 4:18:31.38

    Good Luck! I know you'll rock!

    ReplyDelete
  38. JessicaOctober 8, 2010 at 10:38 AM

    My guess is 4:29:37. Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Zaneta @ Runner's LuckOctober 8, 2010 at 10:40 AM

    how fun!! :D 4:12:28

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  40. BeckaOctober 8, 2010 at 10:47 AM

    Already a follower :D

    4:17:10

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  41. RunToTheFinishOctober 8, 2010 at 10:51 AM

    ohh this is too fun
    Hmm I see a lot of folks are thinking along the same lines as me...let me make sure I don't duplicate any times....

    4:22:03

    ReplyDelete
  42. LaurieOctober 8, 2010 at 11:01 AM

    I'm going to go with 4:26:52 because that was the first number that came to my head but I think you'll actually go faster. You've worked so hard, you are totally going to rock this race!!

    ReplyDelete
  43. MeganOctober 8, 2010 at 11:04 AM

    4:33:28!

    Good luck! I'll be running my first half marathon that dy!

    ReplyDelete
  44. Runners FuelOctober 8, 2010 at 11:05 AM

    I'm already a follower. I'm guessing your time will be 4:16. Good luck!!

    ReplyDelete
  45. H LoveOctober 8, 2010 at 11:06 AM

    4:30:57 GOOD LUCK!! Enjoy every step regardless of time!!

    ReplyDelete
  46. racing dawnOctober 8, 2010 at 11:14 AM

    4:29:50 - go get it, you're going to do great! yes, hold back at the beginning...keep all that adrenaline under control! :) it's gonna be so awesome to have a new PR! good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  47. MeredithOctober 8, 2010 at 11:15 AM

    I'm going with 4:18:25.

    I'm so excited for you and can't wait to hear how it goes! You are going to CRUSH your PR!

    ReplyDelete
  48. CynthiaOctober 8, 2010 at 11:28 AM

    Im guessing 4:05:12
    You're going to ROCK this marathon!!!
    (Im already a follower)

    ReplyDelete
  49. giraffyOctober 8, 2010 at 11:49 AM

    I think it's going to be awesome!
    4:27:14
    (already a follower)

    ReplyDelete
  50. ShelleyOctober 8, 2010 at 12:02 PM

    4:52:10

    Good luck!!!

    ReplyDelete
  51. ShelleyOctober 8, 2010 at 12:04 PM

    OK, I just read what everyone else entered and obviously I'm not very good at this...but you will rock the marathon, no doubt! :)

    ReplyDelete
  52. SuziOctober 8, 2010 at 12:09 PM

    I'm already a follower.

    4:21:37

    Good luck in Indy! I will send word back home that the Hoosier state better be good to you!

    ReplyDelete
  53. AnonymousOctober 8, 2010 at 12:09 PM

    I'm a follower - 4:34:38.

    You'll look great and rock through the course, taking it in and enjoying every step.

    ReplyDelete
  54. HayleyOctober 8, 2010 at 12:11 PM

    I'm already a follower...My guess is 4:48:08

    ReplyDelete
  55. BerryfineOctober 8, 2010 at 12:22 PM

    I'm a follower :)

    4:40.26

    Boom. Make it happen. Homegirl needs hydration!

    ReplyDelete
  56. Nike AthenaOctober 8, 2010 at 12:56 PM

    I'm a follower. =)

    4:36:47 Rock it girl!

    ReplyDelete
  57. JudiOctober 8, 2010 at 1:00 PM

    I'm a follower!

    4:04:44 I thought I would just go with the number 4 for fun! :)

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  58. Momma TwitchOctober 8, 2010 at 1:35 PM

    4.20.39 I think you'll be faster than you think! You're going to do awesome!

    ReplyDelete
  59. track coach and adorable wifeOctober 8, 2010 at 1:44 PM

    Hmm, I love me some 11 so and then lets throw in some 18 for mister Peyton Manning and you get 4:18:11! You are gonna destroy this race!

    ReplyDelete
  60. AnonymousOctober 8, 2010 at 1:57 PM

    4:15:22

    you can do it!

    ReplyDelete
  61. AnonymousOctober 8, 2010 at 1:57 PM

    4:15:22

    you can do it!

    ReplyDelete
  62. Julie D.October 8, 2010 at 2:18 PM

    Seriously, am i the first sub-4 bet?!!! Girl, go for it!! I think you are totally ready for it! Already a follower!

    3:59:48

    ReplyDelete
  63. Shellyrm ~ just a country runnerOctober 8, 2010 at 2:35 PM

    Okay based on the numbers I have access to, I guess 4:18:51

    However, I want you to know that I completely know that you are capable of a sub 4 hour marathon. Without a doubt! I believe your training has been amazing. You have done exactly what you should to put yourself in the best posible position to ready have an amazing race.

    Please don't let these numbers/guesses change your mindset for this race. I know you are a subborn confident person and I would not want to see you hurt yourself or run a race that was completely devoid of any enjoyment simply to see a "better" number on that finish clock. You WILL set a fantastic new PR no doubt please enjoy getting it too. (okay enough of the mothering, sorry!)

    ReplyDelete
  64. Katie A.October 8, 2010 at 2:49 PM

    I'm a follower!
    And don't take this wrong! I have all the faith in you! But race day can be hard! I know you're going to PR either way!
    I think...4:31 - if not better!
    Go get 'em girlie!

    ReplyDelete
  65. EmzOctober 8, 2010 at 2:52 PM

    4:07:24

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  66. Sheridan LeeOctober 8, 2010 at 3:36 PM

    Already a follower...I'm going to say 4:41:02

    ReplyDelete
  67. Average Woman RunnerOctober 8, 2010 at 3:50 PM

    Ok - My guess is 4:46:27. A 20 min PR!

    ReplyDelete
  68. One Crazy PenguinOctober 8, 2010 at 4:54 PM

    4:09:56

    You're going to kick major booty!

    ReplyDelete
  69. UnknownOctober 8, 2010 at 5:10 PM

    3:58:43

    Good luck!!!

    ReplyDelete
  70. Blonde Mom RunsOctober 8, 2010 at 5:14 PM

    I'll say 4:17:23

    You are going to crush your PR!

    ReplyDelete
  71. JanetOctober 8, 2010 at 5:35 PM

    You are going to rock it no matter what your time but I'm gonna guess 4:13:55!

    ReplyDelete
  72. LisaOctober 8, 2010 at 6:42 PM

    4:04.41
    what a fun contest. Have a great race!
    mystorychapter2.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  73. AimeeOctober 8, 2010 at 7:04 PM

    4:09:45

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  74. deannahensleyOctober 8, 2010 at 7:06 PM

    Already a follower, 4 hours 14 min 7 sec

    ReplyDelete
  75. gba_gf October 8, 2010 at 8:03 PM

    I would LOVE to say something like, the UBER goal and all, but I honestly think that since it's a travel race I have to add 5 minutes SO...

    4:09:17

    ReplyDelete
  76. Kingston's MomOctober 8, 2010 at 8:57 PM

    4:46:12

    ReplyDelete
  77. Rachel DurazzaniOctober 8, 2010 at 9:03 PM

    I'm thinking sub-4, as well. I really think 3:56:43. Good luck!
    PS: Already a follower.

    ReplyDelete
  78. ajhOctober 8, 2010 at 9:57 PM

    I say 4:22:26. Already a follower.

    ReplyDelete
  79. AllisonOctober 8, 2010 at 9:58 PM

    4:32:12 - already a follower!! (and an avid reader!)

    GOOD LUCK!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  80. AllisonOctober 8, 2010 at 9:59 PM

    and added your giveaway to my giveaway gadget :)

    ReplyDelete
  81. Elaine ROctober 8, 2010 at 10:13 PM

    I just became a follower!

    4:33:07

    ReplyDelete
  82. KristinOctober 8, 2010 at 10:31 PM

    I think I am already a follower, need to check. My official guess is 4:10:20 (based on personal experience). In any case I am quite sure you'll go under 4:20 and certain you'll go under 4:30. Best of luck!

    ReplyDelete
  83. ErinOctober 8, 2010 at 10:43 PM

    I'm a follower!

    4:32:16

    Good luck! You're going to do great!!! :) :) :)

    ReplyDelete
  84. Mel -Tall Mom on the RunOctober 8, 2010 at 11:53 PM

    4:33:33- hehehehe :) GOOD LUCK!

    ReplyDelete
  85. AnonymousOctober 9, 2010 at 12:20 AM

    You know I'm a follower.

    Sub 4 hour marathon.

    03:55:00

    ReplyDelete
  86. AmyOctober 9, 2010 at 3:40 AM

    I follow! 4:16:23 Good luck!!!

    ReplyDelete
  87. LauraOctober 9, 2010 at 5:58 AM

    I will guess 4:23:08. Good luck!!!

    ReplyDelete
  88. KristalOctober 9, 2010 at 10:21 AM

    4:11:11

    I thought that I would guess this because this race will set you up for your 4th marathon(hence the #4)... The rest are #1's to show you that you can do it! Add them up and it equals, you guessed it, 4!!!

    I run my first full marathon in January, maybe you have some tips for me?! I need more followers, just started this but blogging really keeps me motivated.

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  89. KristyOctober 9, 2010 at 10:28 AM

    Love following your blog! You'll do awesome! It was hard to read through all 87 comments :) so hopefully my guess has not already been written...

    4:13:15

    GOOD LUCK!!

    ReplyDelete
  90. CalebOctober 9, 2010 at 12:09 PM

    I am going to say -
    04:23:45

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  91. Courtney @ I CAN DO THISOctober 9, 2010 at 1:33 PM

    4:25:19
    It has all your bib numbers in it.
    (4+2+5=11)

    ReplyDelete
  92. AnonymousOctober 9, 2010 at 3:29 PM

    4:24:02 (And I'm a follower, of course.)

    ReplyDelete
  93. OrangeBlossomOctober 11, 2010 at 3:40 PM

    4:07:07

    Looking forward to the awesome race recap! You go girl!

    ReplyDelete
  94. busyrunningmamaOctober 11, 2010 at 4:43 PM

    4.37:22.

    Hope you do a sub 4 though! Any way you look at it, you will rock it!!

    ReplyDelete
  95. StacieOctober 12, 2010 at 1:36 AM

    4:11:22 Rock this one for me. Completely destroy the 5 hour marathon curse. I know you can do it.

    I'm totally a follower :)

    ReplyDelete
  96. Carla @ I Run, You RunOctober 12, 2010 at 11:49 AM

    I'm thinking 4:16:35

    ReplyDelete
  97. DarleneOctober 13, 2010 at 9:37 AM

    4:44:44

    ReplyDelete
  98. KarynOctober 14, 2010 at 8:55 AM

    4:12:38... best of luck!!!

    I have been following your blog for a little while now... reading about your running experience helped me decide to take the plunge and sign up for my own marathon... thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  99. justmeOctober 14, 2010 at 9:06 AM

    already a follower...4:58:12

    ReplyDelete
  100. JennOctober 14, 2010 at 9:17 AM

    Fun contest! I'm already a follwer. I'm gonna go with 4:26:03. You got this thing in the bag. Have fun out there!

    ReplyDelete
  101. UnknownOctober 14, 2010 at 9:30 AM

    4:15:23

    ReplyDelete
  102. ColleenOctober 14, 2010 at 9:38 AM

    4:31:16

    ReplyDelete
  103. AlannaOctober 14, 2010 at 12:57 PM

    4:23:48

    Have a great time! And be sure to trust your training and ignore all of us... :)

    ReplyDelete
  104. UnknownOctober 14, 2010 at 2:12 PM

    4:36:48

    ReplyDelete
  105. Earth Momma MerOctober 14, 2010 at 3:39 PM

    T,
    I'm a follower, of course.
    And I've waiting until the last second to post this because I know how important the numbers are to you. So, I've put some thought into this. Here goes.
    4:32:10. You can ask me the meaning behind it when I win. :)

    ReplyDelete
  106. dawn @ running the dawnOctober 15, 2010 at 8:43 AM

    4:16:10

    ReplyDelete
  107. AlindaOctober 15, 2010 at 11:06 AM

    Considering how awesome your training and attitude have been I am going for 4:08:33.
    I hope you have a blast!
    Alinda

    ReplyDelete
  108. KrisOctober 15, 2010 at 4:31 PM

    4:26:30

    ReplyDelete