Friday, October 8, 2010

can you guess my finish time?

As you all know, marathon #3 is just eight days away. And as you also know, this will be the first time that I run a marathon injury-free AND full of potential.

So, since I don't have a good sense of how long it will take me to finish, I (with the help of Shelly) thought it would be fun to have contest to see who can best predict my marathon finish time. Fun, right?

Here's the scoop. I am going to give you a bunch of statistics about my training, past performances, etc. Then you use that information to make your best guess on my finish time, down to the second. And the person who is closest (either over or under) will walk away with this ...


(Note: if somehow there is a tie, those names will go into a hat and a winner will be randomly selected.)


THE STATS:
Current Marathon PR: 5:06:38 (injured)

Current Half Marathon PR: 1:58:02

Current 5K PR: 24:09

Average mileage for the past 16 weeks: 42.9 miles per week

Long runs - 20+ miles: 3

(20 @ 10:41 pace, 22 @ 10:11 pace, 24.8 @ 10:44 pace)


So, are you in? Good. Once you have determined my finish time, become a follower (if you already aren't) and leave me a comment with your answer.

Entries will be selected until Friday, October 15th (the day before the race) and the winner will be announced some time in the day or two after the race. Probably.

108 comments:

Michel said...

hmmm I'm taking a total guess...already a follower...
I say 4:48:01
Good luck!

J said...

already a follower! I am going to say 4:41:25!

Stephanie Anne said...

My guess is 4:39:17

good luck!!

Anne said...

I say 4:19:32

Rock it!!

Silly Girl Running said...

I'm already a follower!

And I say: 4:08:56! Easy Peasy!

Meghan said...

Kick butt! 4:34:10

*~* *~* Tracy said...

Follower!

4:37:12

Erin G said...

Follower--of course!

4:27:18

MCM Mama said...

I'm a follower.

I'm saying 4:19:59.

Just remember to start slow and you will absolutely knock this marathon on its butt!

Christa said...

I am a follower already-
I am going to go with 4:14:30

Cant wait to here all about it. You will do great!!

Julie said...

4:05:03!
Kill it!

Michelle said...

4:28:17

jamie@sweatyhugs said...

Already a follower!

My wild guess?

4:15:58

Valerie said...

I'm a follower already :)

My guess: 4:22:22

MarciaG said...

4:20:33!!!!

I follow you.

Have a great marathon!!

erindegroff said...

I'm a follower! 4:30:15. Have a great race! I just finished my first marathon in Corning, NY; it was a blast! I'm already looking for another to do!

Michelle said...

Already a follower! I'm gonna say 4:20:25.

Mrs. Mess said...

4:25:17 and I'm already a follower :)

abbi said...

Follower - 4:20:56

Karen said...

I'm a follower, and I'm going with 4:13:27.

John said...

I say 4:19:25

Marlene said...

Awesome idea!

My guess is: 4:20:00

Karen said...

following :) I am going to say 4:12:38

Carly said...

My guess is 4:22.00. Good luck!

Mona said...

I'm a follower.
I am going to say 4:15:30!

Running Diva Mom said...

I'm going to say 4:17:59 -- You are going to rock this ... and just may surprise yourself! :-)

suzy@countdownto26.2 said...

hmmm....my guess
4:14:22
Good luck girl!

Jen said...

I follow... my guess

4:16:11

You go girl!

Diana Tries-A-Tri! said...

4:10:25
Good luck!
Oh and I'm a follower!

k2323 said...

If you eat cake the night before:
4:20:23

If you don't eat cake:
4:05:23

Good luck!

Holly said...

What a fun idea TMB!!!

I'm gonna go with you destroying this thing...

4:09:35

Emily said...

4:06.54

Pumped for you!

Pam said...

I'm a follower.

4:18:02!

Rae said...

I'm a follower!

4:04:44

YOU GO GIRL!

Maxi Fortend said...

Oooohhh - I feel like I am on the Price is Right! I say 4:15:29! LOL! You will rock it!

Lyndsay said...

4:16:49

Trish said...

I guess 4:18:31.38

Good Luck! I know you'll rock!

Jessica said...

My guess is 4:29:37. Good luck!

Zaneta said...

how fun!! :D 4:12:28

Becka said...

Already a follower :D

4:17:10

Amanda - RunToTheFinish said...

ohh this is too fun
Hmm I see a lot of folks are thinking along the same lines as me...let me make sure I don't duplicate any times....

4:22:03

Laurie said...

I'm going to go with 4:26:52 because that was the first number that came to my head but I think you'll actually go faster. You've worked so hard, you are totally going to rock this race!!

Megan said...

4:33:28!

Good luck! I'll be running my first half marathon that dy!

Runners Fuel said...

I'm already a follower. I'm guessing your time will be 4:16. Good luck!!

H Love said...

4:30:57 GOOD LUCK!! Enjoy every step regardless of time!!

racing dawn said...

4:29:50 - go get it, you're going to do great! yes, hold back at the beginning...keep all that adrenaline under control! :) it's gonna be so awesome to have a new PR! good luck!

Meredith said...

I'm going with 4:18:25.

I'm so excited for you and can't wait to hear how it goes! You are going to CRUSH your PR!

Cynthia said...

Im guessing 4:05:12
You're going to ROCK this marathon!!!
(Im already a follower)

giraffy said...

I think it's going to be awesome!
4:27:14
(already a follower)

Shelley said...

4:52:10

Good luck!!!

Shelley said...

OK, I just read what everyone else entered and obviously I'm not very good at this...but you will rock the marathon, no doubt! :)

Suzi said...

I'm already a follower.

4:21:37

Good luck in Indy! I will send word back home that the Hoosier state better be good to you!

Cynthia O'H said...

I'm a follower - 4:34:38.

You'll look great and rock through the course, taking it in and enjoying every step.

Hayley said...

I'm already a follower...My guess is 4:48:08

Berryfine said...

I'm a follower :)

4:40.26

Boom. Make it happen. Homegirl needs hydration!

nikeathena said...

I'm a follower. =)

4:36:47 Rock it girl!

Judi said...

I'm a follower!

4:04:44 I thought I would just go with the number 4 for fun! :)

Good luck!

Momma Twitch said...

4.20.39 I think you'll be faster than you think! You're going to do awesome!

track coach and adorable wife said...

Hmm, I love me some 11 so and then lets throw in some 18 for mister Peyton Manning and you get 4:18:11! You are gonna destroy this race!

runningwithsass.com said...

4:15:22

you can do it!

runningwithsass.com said...

4:15:22

you can do it!

Julie D. said...

Seriously, am i the first sub-4 bet?!!! Girl, go for it!! I think you are totally ready for it! Already a follower!

3:59:48

shellyrm aka jogging stroller mama said...

Okay based on the numbers I have access to, I guess 4:18:51

However, I want you to know that I completely know that you are capable of a sub 4 hour marathon. Without a doubt! I believe your training has been amazing. You have done exactly what you should to put yourself in the best posible position to ready have an amazing race.

Please don't let these numbers/guesses change your mindset for this race. I know you are a subborn confident person and I would not want to see you hurt yourself or run a race that was completely devoid of any enjoyment simply to see a "better" number on that finish clock. You WILL set a fantastic new PR no doubt please enjoy getting it too. (okay enough of the mothering, sorry!)

Katie A. said...

I'm a follower!
And don't take this wrong! I have all the faith in you! But race day can be hard! I know you're going to PR either way!
I think...4:31 - if not better!
Go get 'em girlie!

Emz said...

4:07:24

Sheridan Lee said...

Already a follower...I'm going to say 4:41:02

Alma said...

Ok - My guess is 4:46:27. A 20 min PR!

One Crazy Penguin said...

4:09:56

You're going to kick major booty!

Deb said...

3:58:43

Good luck!!!

Blonde Mom Runs said...

I'll say 4:17:23

You are going to crush your PR!

Janet said...

You are going to rock it no matter what your time but I'm gonna guess 4:13:55!

Wells L said...

4:04.41
what a fun contest. Have a great race!
mystorychapter2.blogspot.com

Aimee (I Tri To Be Me) said...

4:09:45

:)

deannahensley said...

Already a follower, 4 hours 14 min 7 sec

momof3 said...

I would LOVE to say something like, the UBER goal and all, but I honestly think that since it's a travel race I have to add 5 minutes SO...

4:09:17

Kingston's Mom said...

4:46:12

Rachel said...

I'm thinking sub-4, as well. I really think 3:56:43. Good luck!
PS: Already a follower.

ajh said...

I say 4:22:26. Already a follower.

Allison said...

4:32:12 - already a follower!! (and an avid reader!)

GOOD LUCK!!!!

Allison said...

and added your giveaway to my giveaway gadget :)

Elaine R said...

I just became a follower!

4:33:07

Kristin said...

I think I am already a follower, need to check. My official guess is 4:10:20 (based on personal experience). In any case I am quite sure you'll go under 4:20 and certain you'll go under 4:30. Best of luck!

Erin said...

I'm a follower!

4:32:16

Good luck! You're going to do great!!! :) :) :)

Mel -Tall Mom on the Run said...

4:33:33- hehehehe :) GOOD LUCK!

Courtney said...

You know I'm a follower.

Sub 4 hour marathon.

03:55:00

Amy said...

I follow! 4:16:23 Good luck!!!

LauraElaine said...

I will guess 4:23:08. Good luck!!!

Kristal Reszler said...

4:11:11

I thought that I would guess this because this race will set you up for your 4th marathon(hence the #4)... The rest are #1's to show you that you can do it! Add them up and it equals, you guessed it, 4!!!

I run my first full marathon in January, maybe you have some tips for me?! I need more followers, just started this but blogging really keeps me motivated.

Good luck!

Kristy said...

Love following your blog! You'll do awesome! It was hard to read through all 87 comments :) so hopefully my guess has not already been written...

4:13:15

GOOD LUCK!!

Caleb said...

I am going to say -
04:23:45

Good luck!

Courtney @ I CAN DO THIS said...

4:25:19
It has all your bib numbers in it.
(4+2+5=11)

Lesley @ racingitoff.com said...

4:24:02 (And I'm a follower, of course.)

OrangeBlossom said...

4:07:07

Looking forward to the awesome race recap! You go girl!

busyrunningmama said...

4.37:22.

Hope you do a sub 4 though! Any way you look at it, you will rock it!!

Stacie said...

4:11:22 Rock this one for me. Completely destroy the 5 hour marathon curse. I know you can do it.

I'm totally a follower :)

Carla @ I Run, You Run said...

I'm thinking 4:16:35

Darlene said...

4:44:44

Karyn said...

4:12:38... best of luck!!!

I have been following your blog for a little while now... reading about your running experience helped me decide to take the plunge and sign up for my own marathon... thanks!

justme said...

already a follower...4:58:12

Jenn said...

Fun contest! I'm already a follwer. I'm gonna go with 4:26:03. You got this thing in the bag. Have fun out there!

Angie Bee said...

4:15:23

Colleen said...

4:31:16

Alanna said...

4:23:48

Have a great time! And be sure to trust your training and ignore all of us... :)

Colleen said...

4:36:48

Earth Momma Mer said...

T,
I'm a follower, of course.
And I've waiting until the last second to post this because I know how important the numbers are to you. So, I've put some thought into this. Here goes.
4:32:10. You can ask me the meaning behind it when I win. :)

the dawn said...

4:16:10

Alinda said...

Considering how awesome your training and attitude have been I am going for 4:08:33.
I hope you have a blast!
Alinda

Kris said...

4:26:30